Iran’s Foreign Ministry said yesterday (Monday) that Tehran is not interested in regional escalation, but believes that Israel should be punished for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The Iranian Foreign Ministry also stated that this is necessary to prevent instability in the region.
Against the background of the multitude of publications and assessments of the expected Iranian attack on Israel, which predicts destruction and devastation, there are other voices that present the reality in a more sober and balanced way. In the meantime, Ron Ben Yishai, a Ynet commentator on military and security affairs, said this morning about the planned Iranian attack: “I will risk it and say that it is possible to lower the level of anxiety, almost panic, that grips large parts of the public in Israel”.
In his article he explained that Iran is a weak country, and the new regime led by the reformist President Pazkhian is afraid of destabilizing the economy and society. If Iran attacks Israel in a devastating manner, it is expected to receive in return an air strike that will easily damage 30 percent of the Iranian oil industry.
Also, Israel will be able to destroy dams in Iran, and lead to a drought that will force the population to receive water in personal allowances. The third target that Israel could hit is the Iranian ports – Iran’s central economic connection to the outside world.
On the military level, Iran’s aerospace industry facilities, the UAV factories, and the nuclear facilities are also not all underground, so the Intelligence Division and the Israeli Air Force will not have to exert too much effort to locate and destroy them.
Furthermore, the Israeli air defense system, in cooperation with the Americans and allies, has proven itself in an exceptional way, as 99% of the threats were intercepted in the previous Iranian attack on April 14.
This factor is a restraining consideration because Iran does not just want to avenge the elimination of Haniyeh; He is actually not an Iranian subject, and the reaction to his assassination, in relation to the reaction to the assassination of the senior Iranian in April, is lesser.
Iran is mainly trying to regain its lost honor and prove that the dramatic assassination of the Hamas leader in the heart of Tehran does not show the weakness of the Ayatollah regime. Because of this, in Tehran they are trying to think how to avoid another failure, on one hand, and not to “poke the Israeli bear” on the other hand.
In the meantime, Iran is preparing for defense: Iranian media reported that Tehran asked Moscow for advanced air defense systems in preparation for a possible war with Israel. The New York Times also reported that Russia has begun supplying Iran with advanced radars and air defense systems.
The result of this equation is unfolding before us. We are currently in the midst of the Iranian mind game of chess – without even being aware of the fact.
Iran is applying tactics of intimidation and threats which is successfully luring all western countries into.
This stage is Iran’s time to shine, because the next stage won’t be as impressive.
The attack itself will most likely be carried out by surprise and against military bases and installations, not civilians, this as mentioned in order to prevent a severe Israeli counterattack that would completely crush Iran.
