Yesterday evening (Thursday), the political-security cabinet convened for a special discussion in which, according to reports, various options for an Israeli strike on Iran were discussed. It is possible that a “green light” was given for a specific attack (or at the very least, authorization was granted to certain figures, such as the Prime Minister or the Defense Minister, to decide on the appropriate timing for the strike). This Israeli action has been anticipated since October 1, when Iran launched 180 precise ballistic missiles at Israel, targeting military bases (Nevatim, Hatzerim, Glilot) located near large cities.
A large portion of the missiles were intercepted, and the others did not cause significant damage. The only casualty in the attack was a Palestinian from the Gaza Strip who was in Jericho. Nonetheless, due to the destructive potential of the attack and the need to restore Israeli deterrence against Iran, senior ministers in Israel declared that Iran had made a “grave mistake” and that Israel’s response would be “severe, painful, and at a time of Israel’s choosing.”
How does Israel plan to respond? According to assessments, Israel has three possible target options: civilian, military, and nuclear. The last time Israel was attacked by missiles from Iran, the response came in the form of an attack on military positions deep within Iran (near a sensitive nuclear site). Against Yemen, Israel demonstrated its ability to strike civilian sites, with the destruction of oil tankers in the port of Hudaydah (Iran also has a wealth of potential oil positions for targeting). A strike on nuclear sites is the kind of operation Israel has been planning for 20 years, targeting one of the most significant strategic threats against Israel.
On the other hand, each type of strike has its drawbacks: attacking a military site may not be sufficient to maintain deterrence against Iran; targeting a nuclear site has the potential to escalate into a full-scale war between Iran and Israel, which regional countries seek to avoid (in addition, it is unlikely that Israel would be able to inflict deep enough damage on nuclear sites on its own or that such an attack would truly halt Iran’s nuclear program). Striking a civilian site could lead to an Iranian response with similar characteristics against Israeli facilities, or even American or Saudi targets in the region. Furthermore, Iran has already stated that it would respond to any attempted attack with widespread missile fire towards Israel. Each option has its advantages and disadvantages, but the most important advantage remains consistent across them all—the demonstration of Israel’s strength, striking a precise target thousands of kilometers from its borders.
