In recent days, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived for another visit to Israel, following numerous visits since the war began. His visit comes amid preparations for an Israeli strike on Iran and the deployment of new U.S. defense systems in Israel. It also follows recent developments that have worked in Israel’s favor on both fronts of the war: the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, in a chance encounter in Rafah, and the continued dismantling of Hezbollah’s defense lines and leadership in Lebanon. Just yesterday, the IDF officially confirmed the elimination of Hisham Safi al-Din, Nasrallah’s cousin and successor, in an airstrike three weeks ago.
In the south, Blinken aims to leverage Sinwar’s elimination to negotiate a ceasefire and end the war. Israeli leadership remains skeptical about the possibility of a complete end to the war, as Hamas still retains dangerous military capabilities, and no alternative governing authority has emerged. However, there has been a positive reception to an unofficial proposal for a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of several living hostages. According to reports, some ministers oppose the proposal, fearing it could disrupt the IDF’s momentum. The exact details have yet to be revealed to the public.
A temporary ceasefire in Gaza could provide Hezbollah an opportunity to back down and cut its losses, potentially ending the current war with Israel. Hezbollah, however, has little left to lose — the organization’s leadership is barely functioning, its fighters on the front lines are retreating or being killed in large numbers (just recently, the IDF eliminated nearly 100 militants, including three battalion commanders), and its strategic sites are being obliterated by powerful airstrikes. It remains unclear what Hezbollah will look like after the war, how it will justify its existence to its disappointed supporters and enraged opponents, and whether it will continue to function as a military or political organization. What is clear is that the situation on the northern border will be entirely different, with Israel insisting on nothing less than the full implementation of UN Resolution 1701 — Hezbollah’s complete withdrawal beyond the Litani River, followed by the disarmament of the organization and its integration into Lebanon.
