Yesterday (Saturday), for the first time in this conflict, Hezbollah attempted what can be described as an assassination attempt on a high-ranking Israeli official, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This was carried out by launching three drones towards the Prime Minister’s private residence in Caesarea in the late morning hours. Two of the drones were intercepted en route, but the third crashed and exploded in Caesarea. There is evidence it hit the Prime Minister’s home, though the exact details remain classified. Israeli channel Kan 11 reported that forces were picking up shrapnel around the home while an appraisal expert and the gardener visited the residence shortly after the drone attack. Neither Netanyahu nor his wife were in the area at the time of the incident, and they were never in danger. Neighbors report they had left the night before the attack.
Drone threats are one of the most challenging issues, with threats coming from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and even Yemen. Air defense systems have difficulty identifying the drones and tracking their paths in real-time, making interception challenging. However, intercepting the drones is possible and can be done by aircraft, as demonstrated in the interception of most of the drones launched by Iran in a large-scale attack last April.
The difference then was that Israel had several hours of warning to prepare planes for the air interception. In the current ongoing conflict, this task is significantly more challenging. This has been proven in several tragic cases, from Tel Aviv to a Golani training base and IDF bases on the Golan Heights. While the IDF is developing its detection and defense capabilities, it has been decided that a primary preventive measure against sudden drone attacks will be a stricter activation of sirens in areas where there is suspicion of drone flight.
Meanwhile, the northern conflict continues at full strength, and Israel is still holding off on its promised direct response to Iran following the missile attack on October 1. If a direct link between Iran and the current drone attack is established, Israel would have the justification to retaliate in kind, possibly targeting a senior figure, perhaps even a leader. Given this, it’s no surprise that Iran has quickly issued statements denying any connection to the launches – a sign of deterrence and fear of Israeli actions, as Israel has succeeded in establishing a strong deterrent response equation.
