After the disaster of October 7, Israel found itself facing the many different arms of the “Iranian octopus.” Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis from Yemen, terrorist organizations in the West Bank, and other forces across the Middle East capitalized on Israel’s precarious situation and launched attacks. Now, a bit over a year later, it can be said that the regional picture is entirely different. To understand where Israel and its enemies stand, we spoke with Professor Uzi Rabi, head of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University and a senior lecturer on the Middle East.
“From the outset, it was clear that this war is not only against Hamas in Gaza,” says Rabi. “Other players joined, notably Hezbollah, but as the year progressed, we saw the inclusion of militias in Syria and Iraq and the Houthis, all of which are arms of an Iranian brain.”
A year has passed, and the situation has changed distinctly: “While the issue of hostages not returned remains, which is very serious and problematic, in military terms, there are phenomenal achievements,” claims Rabi, beginning an overview of Israel’s enemies’ situation: “Actually, both Hamas and to a large extent also Hezbollah are quite paralyzed militarily. Iran was exposed in its vulnerability because its air defense, as everyone knows, is insufficient to protect its significant sites, whether in nuclear or economic terms.” Apart from those arenas, Professor Rabi lists another successful front: “If you add what resulted from these achievements in Syria, where the rebels understand that Iran and Hezbollah are significantly weaker, and it is time to overthrow Assad, you definitely get an impressive picture.”
Can these changes in the Syrian front be attributed to Israel?
“Absolutely,” answers Rabi. “First of all, it was done very close to the declaration of a ceasefire in Lebanon, so it became clear in no uncertain terms that Hezbollah was defeated militarily and that Iran is incapable of doing what it could before,” says Rabi, elaborating: “This brought Syrian Sunni rebels, whose greatest enemies are Hezbollah, Assad, and Iran, who massacred them for ten years in Syria, to try to do what they attempted unsuccessfully ten years ago, to overthrow Bashar al-Assad.”
Rabi notes that this is not Israel’s only achievement in Syria: “Not less important, is the fact that Israel managed to significantly destroy the Syrian army. Thus, today there are not enough stockpiles of weapons in Syria to threaten Israel.”
A New Middle East
“In the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Israel holds a lot of bargaining chips,” believes Rabi. “There might be an opportunity here that will not return to attack Iran and its nuclear threat. I definitely know that Israel is thinking about it, especially when there is also a new American administration that can connect to this.”
According to him, the Middle East is currently at a significant crossroads. The substantial changes that have occurred, along with the upcoming Trump administration, determine, in his opinion, that an opportunity has arisen for a different future for the region. “Soon, things are about to become clear,” he says. “It might be that in Lebanon too, they will rise against Hezbollah like in Syria, and even in Iran, although the regime is much tougher, it is also facing many domestic threats. We must be wise and know how to take advantage of these things for Israel’s interest.”
In Professor Rabi’s view, we are closer than ever to normalization with Saudi Arabia: “I hope and believe that the Abraham Accords, signed four years ago, will be expanded. We will essentially gain also the big Saudi Arabia. When it joins, we will receive a much less tense and much more stable Middle East for the benefit of Israel.”
“The questions we are asking today address issues that cannot be postponed,” concludes Rabi. “It seems that these matters will progress in the coming weeks.”
