Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden’s special envoy for advancing ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah, landed in Beirut this morning (Tuesday). Hochstein has served as envoy since 2022, when he was lead negotiator of a maritime deal between Lebanon and Israel. The current visit is largely expected to finalize an agreement in which Israel has outlined its conditions for a ceasefire and Hezbollah has signaled consent through Nabih Berri, the leader of the Shiite Amal party and Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament. These signals have been weak with numerous reservations from Hezbollah a terror organization that prioritizes it’s values and image over substantive issues of territory or weaponry.
The evolving agreement is based on the outlines of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in the summer of 2006 at the end of the Second Lebanon War. According to the resolution, a demilitarized buffer zone was created in Southern Lebanon in which Hezbollah forces would withdraw completely from Southern Lebanon and Israel would not conduct flights or attacks over the area; allowing only the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces to hold arms. In practice, Hezbollah has systematically violated the agreement, as evidenced by the plethora of attack tunnels and weapon stockpiles found in Southern Lebanon villages captured by IDF soldiers. Both UNIFIL and Lebanese forces had turned a blind eye to Hezbollah’s infractions while Israel was prevented from acting against their rearmament. Additionally, until 2011, Israel was also barred from attacking transport routes in Syria, though since then, Israel frequently attacks the routes in order to prevent arms from reaching Hezbollah.
In the current agreement, Israel will ensure that it retains freedom of action in Lebanon against Hezbollah’s rearmament and prevent it from regaining strength and thereby posing as a threat to Lebanon and Israel.
Additionally, the agreement is expected to include certain amendments to the Israeli-Lebanese border line, clarifying disputed areas and removing Hezbollah’s justification for fighting Israel. Furthermore, the agreement is expected to strengthen the Lebanese army to the extent that it can challenge Hezbollah domestically and weaken the organization.
As talks progress, there is a notable decrease in the number of rockets launched by the Lebanese terrorist organization, indicating a hit on its capabilities due to IDF operations and a more stringent arms economy. While Hezbollah launched about 200 rockets and missiles daily for most of the current conflict, the number has now fallen to fewer than 100. However, this does not indicate a reduction in the level of risk for Israelis: yesterday, Safaa Kat, a teacher in Shfar’am, was killed by a rocket striking her home. Additionally, sirens were heard in the Greater Tel Aviv area in the evening, and debris from the interception of a long-range missile fired by Hezbollah struck Ben-Gurion Street at the border of Bnei Brak and Ramat Gan, resulting in 5 injuries, a small fire, and several power outages. Also this morning, sirens sounded across the Sharon area, from Herzliya to Hadera, following 5 rockets launched from Lebanon. Even when rockets are intercepted by Iron Dome or other air defenses, injuries and damage can result from pieces of the destroyed rocket falling to the ground. As of the time of this writing, there are no known casualties.
