The significant tension that began a month ago with the assassinations of Fuad Shukr (Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff) in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas’ Secretary-General) in the heart of Tehran has almost entirely dissipated following the successful preemptive strike by the IDF on Hezbollah missiles in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, for its part, claimed that significant damage was inflicted on Israel and signaled that ‘the Lebanese response’ had come to an end. This does not imply a complete relaxation on the northern front. Just yesterday, there was a drone attack on settlements in the Hula Valley, and a targeted assassination near Tyre, but the special “revenge file” for Fuad Shukr (which was initially opened due to the killing of a dozen children and teenagers playing soccer in Majdal Shams) has been closed.
And what about Iran? Iranian Chief of Staff Bagheri stated yesterday that “revenge against Israel for the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran is certain.” The Americans are also taking the Iranian threat seriously, with General Brown, who visited Israel in recent days, saying that ‘Iran’s response will dictate Israel’s reaction and determine whether we head towards a broader confrontation or not.’ So, can we expect a massive missile and drone attack from Iran, reminiscent of that special night in mid-April?
The answer is likely no. Iran itself has stated that Israel waiting for a response is itself part of the response—so as time passes, it’s reasonable to assume that the reaction will be smaller. The linkage of the response to the success of negotiations with Hamas provides another indication of a desire to avoid escalation. Moreover, times have changed in Tehran, and the new president, Pazeshkian, while not the final decision-maker in the Islamic Republic, represents an important moderate voice and seeks to avoid escalation with Israel. The Iranians may respond in other ways such as cyberattacks, activating proxies, or attempting to target Israeli interests abroad. Iran’s avoidance of involvement in the minor skirmish that took place on Sunday morning, along with the broad American military presence in the Middle East, significantly reduces the likelihood of a direct military action by Iran against Israel.
In summary, when the Iranian leadership claims that “Israel has lost its deterrence,” they might want to look in the mirror and wonder why they have hesitated to attack Israel for more than a month. Israeli citizens are advised to return to their daily lives (or battles) without fear of a direct Iranian attack. There are other things to worry about. After all, the Houthis still owe us revenge as well for the attack on the port—remember that?”
