In the renewed negotiations for the release of hostages, Mossad Chief Dedi Barnea traveled to meet with the CIA Director and representatives from mediating countries (Egypt and Qatar). A new proposal from the Egyptian side was introduced to break the negotiation deadlock since December: a small, focused deal to release four Israeli hostages in exchange for a two-day ceasefire and the release of a few Palestinian prisoners. Israel has not issued an official stance on the matter, though most voices on this issue have been positive.
However, it appears that Hamas continues to insist on nothing less than a complete end to the conflict. Some softening in Hamas’s position seems to have occurred, likely influenced by the death of Sinwar about a week and a half ago, as Hamas now prefers a single, comprehensive deal rather than a phased approach. Nonetheless, Hamas’s statements should be taken cautiously, as the extent of coordination between negotiators and the new leadership in Gaza remains unclear.
On the northern front, a significant step towards ending the conflict occurred yesterday when Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and leader of the Amal Movement—a Shiite group partially supportive of Hezbollah and representing them in negotiations with global powers—announced that Hezbollah is officially willing to separate the Gaza and Lebanon fronts (a linkage that has fueled the northern conflict over the past year) and accept UN Resolution 1701, which includes the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani River. This represents a considerable concession by Hezbollah and a symbolic victory for Israel. Had Hezbollah proposed this before September, the northern conflict might have been avoided. However, with Israeli forces now maneuvering in Lebanon, Israel may not be satisfied with these terms alone and might continue operations to ensure Hezbollah’s military weakening for years to come.
In any case, despite the strategic developments of recent weeks, it seems that all sides are awaiting the most significant turning point ahead—the U.S. elections in just eight days. The election outcome will indicate how constrained Israel may be in its future actions, undoubtedly influencing the parties’ conduct and stances in negotiations.
