Israel and Hezbollah have reached a preliminary understanding on a long-term ceasefire arrangement along the northern border. This follows over a year of mediation by Amos Hochstein, U.S. President Biden’s special envoy to Lebanon, and Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and leader of the Amal Movement, according to reports from international media.
The agreement aims to quiet the northern front for the first time since October 8 last year when Hezbollah decided to join the fight against Israel. However, it comes mainly in response to recent months’ events, including the severe blows Israel dealt to Hezbollah (from disrupting communications to eliminating Hassan Nasrallah and other key terror leaders) and ground maneuvers conducted along various border points.
It appears that both Israel and Hezbollah have given the green light to Hochstein’s latest proposal. Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to present the agreement to the war cabinet for approval today. Once approved, an immediate cessation of hostilities in the north can be anticipated, along with a gradual return to routine in the region and the swift return of northern evacuees to their homes.
Key Elements of the Emerging Agreement
First, the agreement is for only 60 days and not a long-term resolution. During this period, Hezbollah is expected to retreat north of the Litani River, and the IDF will gradually withdraw back into Israel. Simultaneously, South Lebanese Army troops and UNIFIL will take over positions vacated by the IDF.
An international enforcement mechanism, including mostly Western nations, will be established to remove Hezbollah’s presence. Israel will maintain freedom of action against any violations by Hezbollah.
As part of the agreement, Israeli and Lebanese representatives will engage in discussions to resolve various border disputes. Later, negotiations will address the return of Hezbollah operatives captured by Israel, though their numbers are minimal. Unlike the Gaza border, no buffer zone will be established along Lebanon’s southern border, allowing residents to return to their homes.
How Does the Agreement Relate to UN Resolution 1701?
If the emerging arrangement reminds you of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, passed in August 2006 at the end of the Second Lebanon War and whose non-implementation led to the current conflict, you are correct. The new agreement acknowledges this and aligns the enforcement mechanism with Resolution 1701’s provisions: strengthening the South Lebanese Army, banning unauthorized weapons south of the Litani, and preventing smuggling into Lebanon.
The key difference lies in Israel’s capabilities. While Resolution 1701 limited Israel’s ability to act against violations, the current agreement, under direct understandings with the U.S., allows Israel to act against immediate threats to its forces and citizens, as well as granting greater freedom of action in Syrian airspace. Additionally, if Israel concludes that the enforcement mechanism is insufficient in addressing non-immediate threats, it will retain the right to act independently to neutralize them.
These details of the agreement are highly sensitive and deliberately vague—both for Israel and for Hezbollah.
