The working teams’ discussions in Cairo continued to progress last night (Monday), so far without the participation of Hamas. In an attempt to break the stalemate in the negotiations, the teams are using the American strategy, where the parties first address less sensitive issues, such as the mechanism of the deal, leaving the discussions on the critical issues—namely, the Philadelphi Route and the Netzarim Route—for the last moment.
The American Strategy: Start with Agreed-Upon Issues and Move Forward from There
The head of the American team is CIA Director Bill Burns, who is leading the strategy adopted by the mediators. According to this strategy, the parties begin by discussing peripheral issues related to the deal, such as the mechanism for implementing the deal. Afterward, the parties will tackle the most critical issues where there are larger gaps—specifically, the control and supervision of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Routes by the IDF.
Progress in the Talks So Far
Even after the Israeli delegation returned from Cairo, working teams remain there, discussing issues and reporting “progress” regarding the key elements of the deal. The teams are close to agreements on the veto issue, meaning how many names of significant prisoners Israel can veto and not release, as well as how many prisoners will be exiled abroad. Additionally, progress has been made on how many hostages will be released and the pace of their release, which currently stands at about five live hostages per day—a number approaching what Israel wanted in the initial stage.
Israeli sources claimed last night that despite the progress in the talks, in the current state of affairs, Sinwar would not agree to move forward with the deal without flexibility on the Philadelphi issue: “Even if all issues are agreed upon—without flexibility on the Philadelphi issue, it will not be possible to truly put Sinwar at the horns of a dilemma,” they said.
However, the sources also referred to the possibility of using greater military force to change his mind. According to them, “Perhaps if he feels that IDF forces are closing in on him, something in his stubborn stance might change.”
Optimism in the U.S., Preventive Strike Did Not Affect the Talks
In a briefing to journalists last night, White House spokesperson John Kirby referred to the progress in the Cairo talks, which continue to take place. According to him, Biden’s envoy, Brett McGurk, will stay in Cairo for another day and then leave soon, but the working teams’ meetings will continue for a few more days.
“The issues being discussed are reaching a higher level of detail than before,” Kirby said. “One topic is the exchange of hostages and prisoners.”
Kirby added that the preventive strike in Lebanon did not affect the talks: “Progress is continuing, the talks are constructive,” he said.
