Two days after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General and Israel’s greatest enemy, it’s possible to begin examining the reality with some perspective, analyzing what happened, and speculating about where Israel and the Middle East are headed. There is no doubt that the assassination was a strategic event, second in importance in the Middle East this year (and even in the past decade) only to October 7. The Shiite axis has taken its hardest hit ever, and for the first time since it began forming 40 years ago, its progress has been halted.
From Israel’s standpoint, this is an event being fully exploited: the attacks on Hezbollah continue at full force, with hundreds of bombings across Lebanon every day targeting launchers and weapon stockpiles, along with additional senior figures—including Nabil Qawouk, Hezbollah’s security chief and one of its most prominent political leaders. At this point, it’s safe to assume that Hezbollah isn’t responding not because it doesn’t want to or isn’t planning something, but because it simply can’t—due to the severe blow to its capabilities, leadership, and the morale of its fighters.
For the time being, it seems that Iran is also in shock and doesn’t wish to escalate tensions with Israel, which has recently demonstrated its immense power. It’s even possible that Iran is looking to cut its losses and resolve the situation as quickly as possible. Iran’s proxies—whether in Iraq, Yemen, or Syria—are acting out, but none of these actions are significantly affecting Israel’s policy.
A large part of the historical responsibility now falls on the citizens of Lebanon, particularly those from non-Shiite communities. The weakening of Hezbollah’s power creates a political and military vacuum in the country, and Sunnis and Christians have a historic opportunity to reclaim control of the country. From Israel’s perspective, this could be an optimal outcome, with the Lebanese army entering southern Lebanon and significantly disarming Hezbollah. So far, the Lebanese seem indifferent—and the decision rests entirely in their hands.
In the Arab and Western worlds, Israel’s image seems to have gained significant reinforcement. Few in the Arab world mourn Nasrallah’s fate or seek to save Hezbollah, especially not among the Sunni communities in Syria. Even in the Western world, most of Israel’s critics are noticeably silent in light of its spectacular success in the recent campaign. World nations have remained quiet over the past few days, waiting to see what will happen next. Diplomatic pressure from these countries could influence the campaign and help Israel achieve its objectives.
