The vote count across U.S. states began as Election Day ended and is expected to continue for a while. However, it is already clear that the momentum is leaning toward Trump. Trump has received more votes than anticipated in ‘red’ (Republican) states and may secure the majority of votes nationwide. In ‘purple’ (swing) states, it appears that the polls underestimated Trump’s strength—he currently holds a near-solid lead in almost all of them.
Among the key states, most U.S. media outlets have already declared Trump victorious in at least two—Georgia (where Biden won in 2020) and North Carolina (which voted for Trump in the last two elections). Trump currently has a comfortable lead in Michigan and Wisconsin as well. If he indeed wins both, he could be declared the final winner in the election. Trump is also narrowly leading in Pennsylvania and Arizona, but these results are still too close to call. As of now, the New York Times estimates Trump’s chances of winning the election at over 95%, with the former president projected to secure more than 300 electoral votes.
If Donald Trump wins the election, it would mark the second time in U.S. history (and the first in over 100 years) that a president has won two non-consecutive terms. This could represent a significant shift for the U.S. and the world, which is expecting substantial changes in American foreign policy, economy, and security in the coming months. (The elected president will only take office on January 20—until then, President Biden’s term continues.) In Israel, there may also be major shifts in the U.S. approach to the conflict, with hopes that Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his desire to end the war, will grant Israel more freedom to use greater force in pursuit of a decisive resolution. Moreover, Trump’s victory could deal a severe moral blow to the entire Shiite axis.
More than a Republican victory, this is seen as a Democratic defeat—most voters have decided that they’ve had enough of Biden’s turbulent term and are not interested in electing Harris. Perhaps the U.S. is still not ready to elect a female president—or maybe voters have come to realize that beneath Harris’s eloquent words lies a substantive void. In any case, it will be interesting to see how the pro-Palestinian protesters, who have stirred up unrest and problems for the Democratic administration, now feel as they face the consequences of their actions.
