The Israeli delegation has already landed today (Thursday) in Doha, Qatar for the summit that will start at 5:00 PM and is led by the head of the CIA Bill Burns. The head of the Mossad, Dadi Barnea, the head of the Shin Bet, Ronan Bar, Major General Nitzan Alon – and also Netanyahu’s adviser – will participate in it, along with the Egyptian Minister of Intelligence, Abbas Kamel, and the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammed Al Thani.
The summit is expected to last between one and two days, and it will actually take place with the participation of the Israeli side only, after Hamas conditioned their participation on the cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip, a condition that Israel was unable to agree to. However, the representatives of the terrorist organization will be present in Doha, and will be able to convey messages to the mediators.
The multinational summit comes at a sensitive time for all parties and raises the burning question – what does each party expect to gain from the deal?
What does Hamas want?
After reports that senior Hamas officials decided not to attend the summit, the event becomes a one-sided meeting only. However, even if they reach the summit, it does not appear that the Hamas leadership has any desire to reach an agreement.
The reason for this is also simple. Contrary to the many beliefs that the West places on Hamas’ desire to end the war, the truth is that the terrorist organization’s ultimate goal, as revealed to all on October 7, is not to provide economic well-being to the residents of the Gaza Strip, but to destroy the State of Israel and kill its inhabitants.
The concept has already collapsed, but many have already built another in its place. It is important to remember that Sinwar himself, like Haniyeh, the previous Hamas leader who was eliminated by Israel, is not at all influenced by considerations of human life. The American attempts to repeatedly revive the contacts for a deal were met with cynical reactions from Hamas, which enjoys fooling the mediators and Israel, and watching the heated division of opinion that is being formed within the State of Israel around the abductee deal, all of whom wish for their return, as can be expected from a peace-loving country that sanctifies life.
It appears, against the background of the history of explosions of attempts at negotiations by Hamas so far, that Hamas expects to drop the deal – in order to continue the war in Gaza, and lead the entire region to an escalation, as Hamas tried to do from the beginning of the war. An intriguing scenario that may arise is that the Arab mediators, or even Iran itself – will put pressure on Hamas to agree to a deal without any choice.
What does the US want?
The US is eager to get a deal, for several reasons. First, because US President Biden wants to seal his presidency with a cease-fire “even temporarily in Gaza”, so he says, and to join the distinguished list of US presidents who have taken real actions for peace.
On the security level, the US is worried about a regional escalation between Israel and Iran, because it could branch out and drag even bigger factors – such as Russia – into the cauldron, and in the worst case scenario create a “Third World War”, which would involve it as well.
Against the background of these considerations, an American campaign of persuasion was launched, which included sending senior officials to the Middle East throughout the week, in order to “close gaps” before the summit. Also, in recent days, American officials claim in an interview with the New York Times that Israel is already “at the end of the road” and that it has “achieved everything it can militarily in the Gaza Strip,” and that now “the ongoing bombings only increase the risk to civilians.”
According to the sources who previously served in the CIA, “Hamas was so damaged in the war that its people told the international negotiating teams that it was ready to give up civilian control of Gaza and give it to another independent organization.”
Contrary to these claims, Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, former head of the MLA, cooled the American eagerness and said that “Israel’s achievements in Gaza are impressive, but far from what should be achieved. If Israel withdraws its forces now – within a year Hamas will be strong again. Stopping the war now would be a disaster, two or three more months of intense fighting are needed in central and southern Gaza. After this stage, Israel will be able to move to intelligence-based raids for a year, to take out the Hamas terrorists and the remaining weapons infrastructure before another party takes over the local government.”
What does Iran want?
Almost three weeks have passed since Iran promised to avenge the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in its territory, which left it humiliated in the eyes of the Arab world and its allies. In the meantime, all verified intelligence assessments indicate that there is no movement of the Islamic Republic’s missile arrays, which may indicate an attack.
However, in the meantime, the Iranians and the terrorist organization Hezbollah launched a campaign of intimidation, as Nasrallah admitted, which was effectively spread with the kind help of the media in Israel who did not stop publishing speculations, prophecies of rage and horror scenarios about a possible attack.
Meanwhile, in the Israeli security systems, the preparations for every scenario were brought to the political level for approval, including thwarting an Iranian attack – as soon as it is discovered, protecting Israel’s airspace – after this attack is launched, and a massive attack in Iran or elsewhere, as needed.
In addition, the US military has increased the deployment of its forces, including placing another aircraft carrier in the waters of the Middle East, and transporting a submarine with advanced offensive capabilities to a nearby location. including Germany, Great Britain, Italy and France.
The Iranian response abroad remains firm and uncompromising; However, reports in the international media reveal that Iranian President Pezeshkian urged Supreme Leader Khamenei to reconsider the intensity of the attack, in order to avoid a devastating counter-reaction.
Alongside this, an interesting and positive development towards the negotiations was heard this week, when 3 Iranian officials told the Washington Post that they are considering sending representatives to the negotiations, and that “only a ceasefire in Gaza will prevent Iran from avenging the elimination of Haniyeh”.
Meaning, that Iran is looking for a deal to “climb down from the tree” before they find themselves hanging from it. All that remains to be seen is whether Iran’s panic will cause them to pressure Hamas into agreeing to a hostage deal, which will include a ceasefire.
What does Israel want?
In Israel, they expect to gain the most valuable of all – the 115 abducted by Hamas. However, the reference to the deal in Israel is complex, causing it to convey on the one hand readiness and openness towards the deal – along with adherence to security principles. However, the mood among Israeli society is not optimistic that anything will come of this deal. Along with unverified reports about the insistence of the Prime Minister’s office that makes it difficult to reach agreements, the main reason for the fact that there is still no deal is Hamas’s insistence on terms that are not agreed upon for Israel, and the terrorist organization’s refusal to be flexible or even appear at the negotiating table.
The success of the summit in Qatar is currently in doubt, but in this time of uncertainty, one can actually lean on it, and give room to the unknown to surprise – and maybe even for the better.
