After the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Iran continues to threaten military retaliation against Israel. However, experts question Tehran’s ability to carry out these threats effectively.
In the missile and drone attack Iran launched against Israel last April, significant gaps were revealed between the statements and the actual performance. This was the first time since the Gulf War in 1991 that a country launched such a large-scale missile barrage towards Israel, but the results were disappointing for Tehran.
Many of the missiles were intercepted by international forces led by the U.S., while others failed at the launch stage or crashed en route, and even the missiles that managed to reach Israel did not hit their intended targets.
A new report, obtained by the AP news agency from researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, reveals surprising findings about one of Iran’s most advanced missiles, the “Emad.” According to the report, the missile is significantly less accurate than previously estimated. The missile’s estimated circular error probable was measured at about 1.2 kilometers, compared to the 500 meters previously estimated. This is despite Iran presenting the missile as having an accuracy of only 50 meters.
The poor performance of Iran’s missiles raises questions about their military effectiveness. Experts estimate that instead of serving as a precise military tool, the missiles may become more effective as a terror weapon against large civilian targets.
Despite doubts about the capabilities of Iran’s conventional missiles, the Iranian nuclear threat remains in the background. Western intelligence agencies claim that Iran had a military nuclear program until 2003, and a U.S. intelligence report from July notes that Iran is in a better position to produce nuclear weapons, should it choose to do so.
However, experts emphasize that turning this theoretical capability into an operational nuclear weapon could take years. There is a significant gap between the ability to produce military-grade fissile material and the ability to produce a nuclear warhead and integrate it into an operational weapons system.
While Iran’s missile program continues to pose a potential threat, its actual performance raises many doubts about its military effectiveness. Nonetheless, the continued development of Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, alongside the use of pro-Iranian militias in the region, ensures that tensions in the Middle East will persist for the foreseeable future.
Experts agree that despite the gaps between statements and actual performance, the Iranian threat should not be underestimated, as Iran continues to invest considerable resources in improving its capabilities, and these developments should be closely monitored.
