Throughout history, particularly in non-conquest wars, the long-term outcomes and consequences of conflicts are often determined not on the battlefield but in the diplomatic negotiations that follow. In these negotiations, the balance of power is shaped by the results on the battlefield. Military actions are quickly followed by political maneuvers, which can reshape the relationships between nations and address the underlying tensions that led to conflict.
Unlike the southern front, where Israel appears to have little interest in a diplomatic process at this stage, the northern front shows a clear push for such an approach. Israel aims to alter the situation in Lebanon by breaking Hezbollah’s stranglehold on Lebanese politics. This dominance has led to political paralysis, evident in the country’s inability to elect a new president for the past two years, and has contributed to a severe economic crisis, which has made Lebanon one of the most miserable countries in the world according to global happiness indexes.
This shift is reflected in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s appeal to the Lebanese population and its various communities—Sunni Muslims, Druze, Maronite Christians, Orthodox Christians, and even Shiites who do not support Hezbollah. He urged them to take control of their future and to act politically—and if necessary, militarily—against Hezbollah at this crucial moment. Netanyahu warned the Lebanese people that the alternative is a continuation of the conflict and bloodshed for decades to come.
The United States is also making efforts to support a political process aimed at weakening Hezbollah. Recently, it has been promoting a plan with Arab countries to push for a presidential election in Lebanon in the near future. Some Arab states, like Saudi Arabia, support this initiative, while others, such as Egypt and Qatar, are opposed. For Israelis, this situation is reminiscent of the First Lebanon War in 1982, when one of Israel’s objectives was to support Bashir Gemayel’s election as president—an endeavor that initially seemed promising but ultimately failed after he was assassinated by Syrian agents, marking a turning point in the war.
Today, 1,344 years ago, the Battle of Karbala occurred, which remains one of the most significant collective traumas for Shiites around the world. If Israel and the United States succeed in leveraging the current conflict into a political move that weakens Hezbollah, it could create a new collective trauma for Shiites, underscoring the futility of their struggle against Israel.
