In Israel, all eyes eagerly await Monday, January 20th – the historic day Donald Trump will return to the White House. Many questions about the day linger, such as what will its outcomes be for Israel? What about the return of hostages, as Trump himself promised? We spoke with Dr. Kobby Barda, an American politics historian at the Interdisciplinary School at Holon Institute of Technology. He laid out an especially surprising prediction of what lies ahead.
A “Reaganesque Moment”
“From the very onset of the new administration, two key things relevant to Israel will unfold,” Dr. Barda begins. “First, the issue of hostages. From the day of his election, I’ve said that I believe at least some of the hostages will be returned either before or on the day Trump re-enters the White House,” Barda asserts.
This bold prediction has an explanation: “Trump aims to create what I call a ‘Reagan Moment,’ referring to the day Trump’s most admired figure, Ronald Reagan, entered the White House on January 20, 1981. After nearly 450 days, 52 American hostages — whom President Carter had failed to release — were freed as a gesture by the Iranians, in fear of what Reagan might do to them,” he explains. “My assessment has been that Trump would aim for a similar move, which he hinted at in his recent tweet.”
RN: What will Trump do if the hostages aren’t released? After all, he warned “All hell will break out”…
“When Trump speaks of ‘hell’ for those who don’t return the hostages, it doesn’t necessarily mean, and almost certainly doesn’t mean, he’ll take military action,” Barda clarifies. “Trump prefers to avoid using military force, but he has other significant tools to pressure Hamas – especially in the realm of diplomacy.”
“Trump is likely to allow Israel to act freely in Gaza while providing American support, including vetoing any UN proposals against Israel.”
Barda believes these implications are clear to Hamas and the mediating nations in the hostage issue: “I think Hamas understands this, as do the mediating countries — Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey. They’re ensuring everyone necessary understands exactly what the consequences will be if at least some hostages aren’t released.”
A Split-Screen Scenario
“I anticipate that already within the first days, during the window between Trump’s inauguration and his arrival at the White House to sign orders — between 2 PM and 5 PM Washington time — there will be a breakthrough on the hostage issue,” Barda predicts.
“I cannot specify the format in which it will take place. Will there be a plane flying directly to retrieve the hostages? Will there be a press conference with some of the families? I don’t know. But I expect a split-screen scenario, with coverage of both the White House and the hostage event location, similar to Reagan’s inauguration day. I’ve held this view for a while, and shared it publicly since the very day Trump won the election,” he notes.
The End of Antisemitism?
“The second issue Trump will address on day one is combatting antisemitism,” Barda explains. “We’ll see a significant initiative from President Trump: First, targeting any campus protesters with visas who aren’t U.S. citizens — they’ll be deported. Additionally, he’ll take action reducing federal funding for universities failing to address the antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment on campuses,” he reveals.
RN: You believe Trump’s actions can successfully combat the rising antisemitism? Will Israelis and Jews be able to move around with a sense of security?
“Absolutely,” Barda states confidently. “We’ve already seen Congress prepare legislation imposing severe sanctions on universities. For example, Columbia University could lose $350 million in funding from the NIH, which supports medical research.”
“There’s widespread panic among universities that tolerated antisemitism last year. Yale is already deploying drones to monitor and detect antisemitic activities on campus. At Harvard, the new president convened the staff and warned them that past behaviors won’t be tolerated anymore,” Barda notes.
Barda asserts that repercussions will be so severe, they will fundamentally change reality: “We are talking about a set of punitive tools aimed at any universities which fail to get their act together. What happened in 2023–2024 will not repeat in 2025.”
The Desire for a Nobel Prize
“Within his first month in office, I expect Trump to make significant breakthrough toward a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia,” Barda predicts, adding an intriguing reason: “Donald Trump is set on the Nobel Peace Prize — he is determined to receive it. There are two paths: either the Israel-Saudi Arabia axis, or the Ukraine-Russia axis. I believe he will focus on this very heavily .”
RN: What about the ICC?
The International Criminal Court (ICC) recently caused significant issues for Israel, issuing arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant. Barda suggests Trump will also act in this arena.
“We’ll see Trump targeting anyone who collaborated with Karim Khan, the ICC prosecutor. This includes pursuing judges, prosecutors, and even countries cooperating with the court. The U.S. has plenty of economic, diplomatic, and other tools to influence both individuals and nations.”
RN: Do you have any open-ended concerns?
“I can’t say for certain what will happen with Iran,” Barda admits. “Could there be a coordinated attack by Biden and Trump before the inauguration? It’s highly possible. That way, both Biden as the outgoing president, and Trump as not yet the sitting president, could both avoid responsibility,” speculates Barda, and concludes: “Either way, this remains is an extraordinarily complex scenario.”
